Participation and Competition in Top-Two Elections: Tradeoffs in Election Reform
State Politics and Policy Quarterly
J. Andrew Sinclair, Ian O'Grady, Bryn Miller, and Catherine Murphy
Claremont McKenna College
Contact: asinclair@cmc.edu 

OUTLINE

This is a straightforward paper which uses only two datasets and a single Stata .do file to conduct the analysis.  The main text of the paper relies on official election statistics provided by the California Secretary of State.  One figure in the appendix imports some Google Trends data.  The Stata .do file is set to install the required packages, so downloading the two datasets, modifying the file paths in the .do file to match your computer, and then running the .do file should be adequate to replicate the numbers included in the paper.

This file describes the computational environment, the packages and versions of Stata used in the paper, lists the relevant files, and provides information about the source data.  Note that the project upload in the dataverse also includes a longer "Replication Commentary" as a pdf, which includes supplemental information.  

COMPUTATIONAL ENVIRONMENT, PACKAGES, and VERSIONS

Analyses were completed with Stata 18 SE with a 64-bit operating system, running Windows 11.  

The main data file is saved as a Stata dataset (.dta), of the type .dta-format 118, from Stata 14, 15, 16, 17, or 18.

The Google Trends data was downloaded and then saved as a MS Excel file (.xlsx) using Microsoft Office Home and Business 2019.  Stata can import this file directly without the user owning a copy of excel.  

The analysis uses three packages, all of which Stata can directly install:

1.  scheme-burd.  https://github.com/briatte/burd.  
2.  estout.  Version 3.31, Ben Jann.
3.  labutil.  Distribution-Date 20131123,  Nicholas Cox.  

Note that scheme-burd is no longer findable by <findit burd>, but still can be installed by <ssc install scheme-burd, replace>.  All this does is slightly modify the presentation of the figures: it does not impact the actual analysis.  It can also be replaced with the default Stata scheme without doing much harm.

LIST OF FILES

There are six items in total: five for the replication, and the paper itself.

1.  Sinclair_etal_2025_SPPQ_FinalReplicationVersion.pdf 
    
    The version of the paper included for uploading: final, save copy-editing.  It includes the appendix.

2.  Sinclair_etal_2025_SPPQ_README.txt
    
    This file, the READ-ME.

3.  Sinclair_etal_2025_SPPQ_Replication_Commentary.pdf  

    A companion to the shorter READ-ME.
    Includes examples with screenshots from the original data source.
    This also includes the codebook.  

4.  Sinclair_etal_2025_SPPQ_ReplicationFile_Final.do 

    The Stata .do file.  
    To run it, you will need to modify the file paths to match your own file folders.

5.  TeamPaper_RegularVersion_2025_0613_replicationset_FINAL.dta

    This is the main data file, drawn from election returns reported by the CA SOS.

6.  Search_AdrinNazarian.xlsx

    This is supplemental Google Search data used for one figure in the appendix.  

SOURCE DATA

1.  Elections Data.  

In California, the Secretary of State's (SOS) Office carries out the state-level elections functions, including reporting official election results.  These are published in documents called the "Statement of Vote" (SOV).  SOVs from 1990-2024 (at of 6/18/25) are available on the SOS's website:

https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/prior-elections/statewide-election-results

There are separate SOV's for each primary and general election.  Additionally, each SOV contains two parts: the "Statement of Vote" and the "Supplement to the Statement of Vote."  For those available online, these are housed on the same web-pages.  For example, see 2012's general election:

https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/prior-elections/statewide-election-results/general-election-november-6-2012/statement-vote

The supplements to the SOV report some state-level measures by lower political districts, including U.S. House, CA Senate, and CA Assembly---and this is how we so easily can obtain top-of-the-ticket vote by legislative district.  

Voter registration statistics are available from 1999-2025 (as of 6/18/25) on a separate page of the SOS's website:

https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/voter-registration/voter-registration-statistics

We have tried to use the registration statistics that correspond with the closest date to the general election (the "15 Day Report of Registration").  

The paper uses a general citation for the source of all of the historical elections day (SOVs, Registration reports) on SOS's website instead of citing the 20 files separately, which seems unnecessary.  The citation is:

California Secretary of State.  2025.  "Election Statistics."  https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/statistics.      

2.  Google Trends Data (Appendix Only).

The Google Trends Data was collected with a search carried out in August 2023 for the time period defined by 1/1/2012 and 1/1/2021.  The search term was Adrin Nazarian and geography defined as the Los Angeles metro region.  This information is included in the appendix only, and is broadly, but not precisely, reproduceable.  That is, as of 6/18/25, a similar search will produce a similar-looking trend, although not a precisely identical one.  The dataset included here is the archived version of our downloaded search results from August 2023.    

Google continues to update and modify the (free) Google Trends service, so it is not possible to ensure a stable computational environment.  These changes are not well-documented or transparent.  Inconsistency over time in Google Trends data is a known issue.  See:

Cebrian, Eduardo and Josep Domenech.  2024.  "Addressing Google Trends inconsistencies."  Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 202 (123318): 1-9.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123318.      

Successful replication in the context of this environment, and to the point of the figure in the appendix, should show higher search volume in 2012, 2016, and 2020 relative to 2014 and 2018. As of 6/18/25, it does:  

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2012-01-01%202021-01-01&geo=US-CA-803&q=adrin%20nazarian

The citation in the appendix is:

Google Trends, 2023.  “Adrin Nazarian.”  Google Trends Search for 01/01/2012 to 01/01/2021 in the Los Angeles metro area.  Search performed and results archived August 2023.     


FURTHER QUESTIONS

Contact J. Andrew Sinclair: asinclair@cmc.edu.




 
